We’re less then a week away from the 2008 presidential election!!! This election will be one of the most historical elections of the history of the United States: the very first African-American contender representing the Democratic Party versus the oldest presidential candidate and his female running mate representing the Republican Party. The predictions I made were based on knowledge and a tad bit of the history of the current races and especially polls and surveys.
I feel like Illinois Senator Barack Obama of the Democratic Party will win this election with the backing of the millions of supporters ranging from ethnic groups to the youth. Based on a visual and poll from Reuters.com, Obama is predicted to have around 306 votes—259 are safe electoral votes and 47 are leaning votes. Arizona Senator John McCain has 157 where 137 are safe votes and 20 are leaning. Even if these forecasted electoral votes were right and McCain won those 75 “too close to call” votes, Obama would still be leading with or without the safe votes. That’s pretty impressive, just to throw that out there. If I were to give a guess in popular votes, I would say something like 51,653,471 votes…which is about 49% of the voters that submitted their ballots in the 2000 election, another very big election.
The Senate race winner for Virginia I expect to be Mark Warner, not just because he has about a 30% lead in polls such as SurveyUSA, but because he was a popular governor during his years in office (plus recognition gained from delivering the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention a couple months ago—it would sort of be a shame for him to lose in my opinion).
Looking at race for seats in the House, nationwide, Democrats are ahead. Virginia’s 11th district race between Gerald Connolly (Democrat) and Keith Fimian (Republican) for the open seat that Democrat Tom Davis is retiring from is in favor of the Democrats and Conolly. However, looking at the 10th district race, Republican Frank Wolf looks like the forerunner of the race against Democrat Judy Feder, using his work on the local transportation issue as well as his seniority to help back him up (he’s been elected since 1980).
I supposed I’m finally “decided” now. I respect everyone’s opinion, but I really do hope the Democrats win; not because I’m a hardcore Democrat (I’m really not, I actually think many of my personal views match the Republican ideology), but because I believe they better understanding the common man and would employ policies that would benefit everyone (particularly the economy)…hopefully. :)
Source: Reuters.com
3 comments:
first of all cute picture! this election will definitely make history in the United States, it's actually kinda cool to be able to volunteer with public campaigning and become a part of everything. in the beginning of the race, I truly did not think Obama would come out on top, but the polls and data show now more than ever that he will most likely win! go democrats!
When I went canvassing on Saturday, I talked to a man (rather he kept talking to me) about the electon. The african-american man said that he had voted early (absentee) and that it was the first time he had ever voted. He was so proud, like many other African Americans coming out today, to be voting. This moring when I went to the polls(just before 7) I saw two fellow highschoolers. Not only will Obama win the votes of African Americans, but also inspire the youth to vote, and for him.
Of course Obama is going to win! This is definitely going to be one of the biggest elections in U.S. history and Virginia is actually going blue this year! Obama is going to be the first black president and its going to open more doors for change in our country. And I agree that Warner is going to win Senate and I'm not sure about House. But good job!
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