Week Four, Election Post

As the presidential nominees, Barack Obama and John McCain, fire up their campaigns, polls and surveys are being taken nationwide to track and assess the very crucial public opinion. In the most recent polls, Obama received 48% whereas McCain has 39% (Ralph Nader with 2%, Bob Burr with 1%, and). Undecided and floating voters consisted of 10% of Ipsos/McClatchy poll (the margin error is about 3.3%). A couple of other polls included: the New York Times/CBS News – Obama 53, McCain 39; USA Today/Gallup – Obama 51, McCain 44; Washington Post/ABC News – Obama 53, McCain 43; and Newsweek – Obama 52, McCain 41.

Senator Barack Obama seems to be in the lead for most of the polls and surveys conducted, but the difference varies. The Washington Post and New York Times probably have high percentage points in favor of Obama because of demography: north and eastern locations tend to lean more toward the Democratic party. Regions like Texas, a GOP stronghold, are more likely to favor McCain because the Republican party is more prominent in the South.

For the Senate race, the forecast leans more toward the Democrats (candidate Mark Warner). Recent polls done show that Warner has an average of a 28.8% lead. A poll done by SurveyUSA on October 4th-5th again has Warner leading (this time with a 30% lead). Warner resulted with 61% whereas Republican Jim Gilmore had 31%. However, a poll done by Suffolk on October 3rd-5th resulted in Warner with 57% and Gilmore 31%. Warner had a 32% lead.

Polls regarding the election can easily influence the candidates, especially when they receive more media attention then the very political platforms of the candidates (they might start worrying about leading or falling behind). However, polling is a common and effective way of measuring public opinion and political information. The public issues or problems are brought to the attention of these political parties and their political agendas.

Random samples of about 1,500 people or so, representing the entire US population, are taken to answer survey or poll questions. The more people surveyed, the more accurate the results. Also, it is important that the wording of the questionnaire also must be completely unbiased in order to have a solid confidence level, or sample error. Pollsters can sometimes reword questions to get the answers they want which lead to unreliable results, affecting the accuracy and sampling error.

By the way, click on the map to make it bigger!! Credits to CNN.com, I just cut and pasted :)