The 2008 presidential election includes a number of key swing states: California, Washington, Oregon, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Missouri.
Washington and Oregon – Senator John McCain’s new global warming plan may win him quite a few votes, but the region’s demography and anti-war outlook could favor Senator Barack Obama.
California – McCain and target Hispanics and the environmentally-conscious (with his new global warming plan), winning a huge Democratic state.
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico – States are leaning more Democratic, but McCain, again, could target Hispanic voters.
Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri – The states are generally for Obama, but especially considering the religious Midwestern region, Missouri and Wisconsin may be hard to call.
Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey – Obama may have some trouble in these white, working-class, and industrial areas.
New Hampshire – The candidates will hope to win Independent voters, though Obama had lost the state primary and McCain had gained momentum by winning both 2000 and 2008 primaries.
Virginia and North Carolina – Obama is targeting African Americans in the generally Republican South.
Florida –The support of Republican Governor, Senator Joe Lieberman, could help favor McCain.
Virginia and Florida have been red states in recent election (Virginia hasn’t been blue for over 40 years). According to CNN.com, a new survey shows Obama leading Florida (a state where the Illinois senator chose not to campaign). The state’s popular governor Lieberman and his appeal could be swing votes in favor of McCain. However, a poll conducted by NBC/Mason-Dixon a few days earlier shows the percentages split: Obama with 45% and McCain leading by 1% (46%). The margin of error was 4 points which could mean that Obama’s leading. Florida has strong Republican and Democratic support (there’s evidence from the 2000 election), but it seems like the state is again a bit more red than blue.
The same poll taken in Virginia showed Obama in the lead by 2 points, 47% to 45%. Again, the margin for error was roughly 4 points. The reason for Obama’s lead could be his enormous influence on and support from the African American community. Especially looking at his surprise win at the Virginia state primary, Obama could finally break the state’s Republican decades-old stronghold.
(Click on the image to enlarge)
Source: USAToday.com, CNN.com
2 comments:
you did a good job with breaking down each swing state and which candidate is favorable and why. If Obama does win Florida I think it would basically seal a victory in his favor. Good job on the blog
Trends have been broken and precedents set. Why are there so many swing states this year? money. Obama has lots of money and he is pouring it out in front of so many gullible people of every area. Obama has even hit hard-core republican states like Utah with advertisements. money, money, money
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