Week Six, LAST Election Post

We’re less then a week away from the 2008 presidential election!!! This election will be one of the most historical elections of the history of the United States: the very first African-American contender representing the Democratic Party versus the oldest presidential candidate and his female running mate representing the Republican Party. The predictions I made were based on knowledge and a tad bit of the history of the current races and especially polls and surveys.

I feel like Illinois Senator Barack Obama of the Democratic Party will win this election with the backing of the millions of supporters ranging from ethnic groups to the youth. Based on a visual and poll from Reuters.com, Obama is predicted to have around 306 votes—259 are safe electoral votes and 47 are leaning votes. Arizona Senator John McCain has 157 where 137 are safe votes and 20 are leaning. Even if these forecasted electoral votes were right and McCain won those 75 “too close to call” votes, Obama would still be leading with or without the safe votes. That’s pretty impressive, just to throw that out there. If I were to give a guess in popular votes, I would say something like 51,653,471 votes…which is about 49% of the voters that submitted their ballots in the 2000 election, another very big election.

The Senate race winner for Virginia I expect to be Mark Warner, not just because he has about a 30% lead in polls such as SurveyUSA, but because he was a popular governor during his years in office (plus recognition gained from delivering the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention a couple months ago—it would sort of be a shame for him to lose in my opinion).

Looking at race for seats in the House, nationwide, Democrats are ahead. Virginia’s 11th district race between Gerald Connolly (Democrat) and Keith Fimian (Republican) for the open seat that Democrat Tom Davis is retiring from is in favor of the Democrats and Conolly. However, looking at the 10th district race, Republican Frank Wolf looks like the forerunner of the race against Democrat Judy Feder, using his work on the local transportation issue as well as his seniority to help back him up (he’s been elected since 1980).

I supposed I’m finally “decided” now. I respect everyone’s opinion, but I really do hope the Democrats win; not because I’m a hardcore Democrat (I’m really not, I actually think many of my personal views match the Republican ideology), but because I believe they better understanding the common man and would employ policies that would benefit everyone (particularly the economy)…hopefully. :)

Source: Reuters.com

Current Event #6: Not Out of the Woods

The article I read this week was an editorial from the Washington Post titled "Not Out of the Woods". It talked about the need for improvement but nothing radical, as many European leaders such as the Prime Minister of England, Gordon Brown, as well as French President, Nicolas Sarkozy. Leaders blame the free-market system of the United States and demand some changes.

The Bretton Woods meeting of 44 Allied nations took place in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire about 64 years ago to come up with some sort of plan that would prevent a second Great Depression. Institutions like the International Monetary Fun, the Bank for Reconstruction and Development (before the World Bank), and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (before the World Trade Organization) still exist today and prove useful. One example is the IMP that has negotiated bailouts for countries like Iceland, Ukraine, Hungary, and Pakistan, possibly also being favorable to Russia or China. Another thing that is playing a major factor in the global economy is America itself: it’s not done being the political and economic power of the world, which is true. American markets may be doing badly, but European markets are falling as well, marking the dollar’s two-year high against the euro; and until the euro takes the place of the global reserve currency, the United States will remain in leadership.

I found the opinion article really interesting, especially regarding the American leadership over the global economy. It wasn’t as pessimistic and gloomy as most people are viewing the country’s financial state nowadays. I didn’t know that the dollar was at a high against the euro, but I had known about the fact that economics overseas were plummeting thanks to the US’s position as a primary leader and superpower. It seems to me that replace America is pretty hard and would take quite some time to achieve the authority and influence our nation possesses.

Week Five, Election Post

The 2008 presidential election includes a number of key swing states: California, Washington, Oregon, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

Washington and Oregon – Senator John McCain’s new global warming plan may win him quite a few votes, but the region’s demography and anti-war outlook could favor Senator Barack Obama.

California – McCain and target Hispanics and the environmentally-conscious (with his new global warming plan), winning a huge Democratic state.

Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico – States are leaning more Democratic, but McCain, again, could target Hispanic voters.

Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri – The states are generally for Obama, but especially considering the religious Midwestern region, Missouri and Wisconsin may be hard to call.

Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey – Obama may have some trouble in these white, working-class, and industrial areas.

New Hampshire – The candidates will hope to win Independent voters, though Obama had lost the state primary and McCain had gained momentum by winning both 2000 and 2008 primaries.

Virginia and North Carolina – Obama is targeting African Americans in the generally Republican South.

Florida –The support of Republican Governor, Senator Joe Lieberman, could help favor McCain.


Virginia and Florida have been red states in recent election (Virginia hasn’t been blue for over 40 years). According to CNN.com, a new survey shows Obama leading Florida (a state where the Illinois senator chose not to campaign). The state’s popular governor Lieberman and his appeal could be swing votes in favor of McCain. However, a poll conducted by NBC/Mason-Dixon a few days earlier shows the percentages split: Obama with 45% and McCain leading by 1% (46%). The margin of error was 4 points which could mean that Obama’s leading. Florida has strong Republican and Democratic support (there’s evidence from the 2000 election), but it seems like the state is again a bit more red than blue.

The same poll taken in Virginia showed Obama in the lead by 2 points, 47% to 45%. Again, the margin for error was roughly 4 points. The reason for Obama’s lead could be his enormous influence on and support from the African American community. Especially looking at his surprise win at the Virginia state primary, Obama could finally break the state’s Republican decades-old stronghold.

(Click on the image to enlarge)
Source: USAToday.com, CNN.com

Current Event #5: Last Presidential Debate

The last (and the most intense) presidential debate took place Wednesday, October 14th at the Hofstra University. Republican John McCain fired aggressive comments at Democrat Barack Obama, and Obama shot back in defense. Many of the issues discussed were taxes (and poor Joe the plumber), foreign oil, and free trade, as well as other topics like campaign ads and Vice President picks. McCain kept coming back to the economic issue and connecting McCain to Bush, but McCain went on criticizing him. He also said wasn’t President Bush and should have ran against Bush four years earlier.

McCain claimed Obama was spending historic amounts of money on negative ads, but Obama stated that according to polls (and an actual study), the public felt that McCain’s the one that’s running all the negative ads (I also think so, too). He went on saying that people, however, are more worried about the economy. On the issue of the economy, McCain disapproved of Obama’s tax proposal by using Joe the plumber. The American dream, he said, was being threatened because of the Democratic idea of “spreading the wealth,” also leading to class warfare.

When foreign oil was brought up, both candidates agreed on increasing independence in about 10 or so years. However, free trade was a issue that had sharp differences: Obama mocked the Bush administration’s agreeing on almost all trade agreements. McCain retorted that free trade with a country like Colombia was not a bad agreement at all, which makes sense in boosting its developing economy.

Both senators praised their vice presidential picks when asked; but when they had to give their opinion on the qualification of the opposing vice president, McCain said Biden was qualified, but not always right. Obama, on the other hand, dodged the question, stating that it was up to the American people to decide. In the end, both competitors did very well, McCain showing a lot more offense than usual.

Week Four, Election Post

As the presidential nominees, Barack Obama and John McCain, fire up their campaigns, polls and surveys are being taken nationwide to track and assess the very crucial public opinion. In the most recent polls, Obama received 48% whereas McCain has 39% (Ralph Nader with 2%, Bob Burr with 1%, and). Undecided and floating voters consisted of 10% of Ipsos/McClatchy poll (the margin error is about 3.3%). A couple of other polls included: the New York Times/CBS News – Obama 53, McCain 39; USA Today/Gallup – Obama 51, McCain 44; Washington Post/ABC News – Obama 53, McCain 43; and Newsweek – Obama 52, McCain 41.

Senator Barack Obama seems to be in the lead for most of the polls and surveys conducted, but the difference varies. The Washington Post and New York Times probably have high percentage points in favor of Obama because of demography: north and eastern locations tend to lean more toward the Democratic party. Regions like Texas, a GOP stronghold, are more likely to favor McCain because the Republican party is more prominent in the South.

For the Senate race, the forecast leans more toward the Democrats (candidate Mark Warner). Recent polls done show that Warner has an average of a 28.8% lead. A poll done by SurveyUSA on October 4th-5th again has Warner leading (this time with a 30% lead). Warner resulted with 61% whereas Republican Jim Gilmore had 31%. However, a poll done by Suffolk on October 3rd-5th resulted in Warner with 57% and Gilmore 31%. Warner had a 32% lead.

Polls regarding the election can easily influence the candidates, especially when they receive more media attention then the very political platforms of the candidates (they might start worrying about leading or falling behind). However, polling is a common and effective way of measuring public opinion and political information. The public issues or problems are brought to the attention of these political parties and their political agendas.

Random samples of about 1,500 people or so, representing the entire US population, are taken to answer survey or poll questions. The more people surveyed, the more accurate the results. Also, it is important that the wording of the questionnaire also must be completely unbiased in order to have a solid confidence level, or sample error. Pollsters can sometimes reword questions to get the answers they want which lead to unreliable results, affecting the accuracy and sampling error.

By the way, click on the map to make it bigger!! Credits to CNN.com, I just cut and pasted :)

Current Event #4: Second Presidential Debate

On the 7th of October, the two presidential nominees squared off once again to a face-to-face debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, focusing on the economy and foreign and domestic policies. The two senators took on questions from the moderator, a crowd of undecided voters, and emails.

Regarding foreign affairs, Republican John McCain argued that he had a “record to stand on” and that Obama didn’t understand national security. Democrat Barack Obama responded by bringing up McCain’s mistaken judgment on the Iraqi war, stating that McCain had promised it would be “quick and easy.”

When the issue of the economy was brought up, Obama claimed that the “worst financial crisis since the Great Depression” was because of President Bush and McCain trying to “strip away regulation. McCain proposed the government buying and renegotiating of bad home loans, which he admitted to being a costly, but essential plan. He said Obama’s tax proposes were pointless and will actually raise taxes on small business revenue, leading to more layoffs.

Health care coverage was another topic the candidates discussed. Both agreed on creating computerized medical records in order to reduce costs and limit errors. Obama said that health care was a “right” and a national insurance program was needed for people that don’t already have coverage through their employer. However, McCain said that competition would help lead to better health care and promised reform have more options available to individuals other than employer-provided coverage.

The 2007 Bush-Cheney energy bill discussed lead to some speculation and attention of media reporters. McCain had voted against the bill, but he said that Obama had voted for it, referring to Obama as “that one.” The media found this label interesting and the public will most probably hear more about it in the days to come. A national poll conducted suggested that debate watchers felt Obama had won the debate. In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, 54% of the 675 adults questions (by telephone) declared that Obama did the best job, while 30% thought that McCain did a better job performing. There’s about a 4% sampling error to the survey.

The next and final presidential debate is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, October 15th at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.

Current Event #3: Bailout Bill Officially Passed

President Bush signed the most historically extensive intervention (since the Great Depression) as of Friday, October 03, 2008. A similar bill was proposed to the House on Monday, September 29, but was rejected, causing the stock market to plummet; but as of Friday, the House finally voted in favor of the bailout bill (263 votes to 171) and the economy will be expecting a well-deserved, stabilizing boost. Treasury Security Henry Paulson said that the will would help to “protect and recapitalize our financial system,” also promising he would start carrying out the plan quickly.

For those that had voted “no” at the first bailout bill received some encouragement from a well-known politician. Democratic Representatives Elijah Cummings and Donna Edwards of Maryland claimed that presidential candidate, Barack Obama, had called Cummings and Edwards to encourage for support of the bankruptcy provision. Obama gave them a sort of security that he too was committed to fixing this economic failure. Some voters may find this a plus point because Barack Obama didn’t have to suspend his presidential campaign (like Republican nominee John McCain had) to show his determination to help save the country from a meltdown (while stilling having the time to debate and call up representatives to tell them to vote for the bill). On the other hand, some may feel Obama is only acting to win more support. Whatever the reaction is, American’s are sure to share their feelings.

John McCain took some heat after the bill was rejected on Monday. However, now some articles are saying that McCain is being viewed as the true defender: temporarily suspending his campaign to put the nation first and insisting the bill be passed and the economy revamped. What happens now to the rescue plan and the nation’s economy, Americans will just have to see (which candidate was/is most competent).

Week Three, Election Post

Looking at local elections, former governors Jim Gilmore (Republican) and Mark Warner (Democrat) are campaigning for the Virginia Senate seat. Mark Warner was a popular and successful governor that actually had a hand in adding more blue to the rather red, Republican state of Virginia. Warner had greatly helped in developing and improving the state’s budget situation. Jim Gilmore was the governor before Mark Warner that promised an end to the tax imposed on personal motor vehicles, cutting taxes some. Both governors were temporarily running for presidency but their presidential campaigns didn’t last very long.

The two candidates are focusing largely on fiscal stewardship in the Senate race—where the issue atop is tax. Gilmore claimed that he had abolished the car tax, but the tax is still collected by cities and counties even today. His attempt at completely rolling back the car tax was interrupted by the economic decline and conflict with fellow Republicans. These increasing costs eventually lead to the cash crunch, also fueled by 9-11 back in 2001. Warner was able to vastly improve the state budget once he got into office (January 2002) which was doing terrible. Warner did increase taxes, the largest increase in tax in the history of Virginia; but his tax cut was one of the biggest tax cuts of the state.

Television ads by the two former governors attack each other about their support of the next president. Gilmore claims that Warner would support higher federal taxes if Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama, were to win the presidency. In one advertisement, Gilmore tries to persuade voters into believing that Warner broke his promise not to raise taxes (which were raised by $1.4 billion). He also claims his fortunes are linked to Republican presidential nominee, John McCain.

The race forecast leans more toward the Democrats (candidate Mark Warner). Recent polls done show that Warner has an average of a 28.8% lead. A poll done by SurveyUSA on October 4th-5th again has Warner leading (this time with a 30% lead). Warner resulted with 61% whereas Republican Jim Gilmore had 31%. However, a poll done by Suffolk on October 3rd-5th resulted in Warner with 57% and Gilmore 31%. Warner had a 32% lead.

It seems like many Virginians feel Democrat Mark Warner, who delivered a keynote address at the Democratic National Convention back in August, is the more viable, practical runner for the position. The U.S. Senate race for Virginia general election is scheduled to take place November 4th, 2008, the same day as the presidential election.

Source: CQ Politics

Current Event #2: The Candidates and the Economic Crisis

For almost two weeks now, the Wall Street financial crisis and the bailout has been making headlines all over the media. Politics and the presidential race, especially, are beginning to view this financial crisis as a way to boost the presidential candidates. Senator Barack Obama has certainly gained more battleground and the chance to get a solid lead in the race. On the other hand, Senator John McCain must find a way to divert this new focus on the economy and its effects or else face the danger of severely hurting his campaign.

Friday’s debate in Oxford, Mississippi had the candidates neck-to-neck. Overnight polls showed that Obama had won the debate and was in the lead. Republican nominee, McCain, will definitely have difficulty trying to turn around this lead; his best hopes are for Wall Street to finally calm down. In the meantime, McCain will argue that Democratic nominee, Barack Obama, is not in any state to be commander-in-chief and Obama will raise taxes and spending in economic crisis, making matters worse. Obama pointed out that McCain had much to say about him, but he not once mentioned the working, middle-class public, which Obama believes is the core of the nation.

In the upcoming three debates, John McCain and his VP nominee, Sarah Palin, are very likely to have to discuss issues like the economy especially once again. Obama has launched TV ads claiming that “McCain doesn’t get it,” that he wouldn’t understand what the middle-class people have to cope with. According the Republican aides, McCain is no where to be seen because he is occupied with getting the financial rescue package ready for a vote (and they say that the package would be a complete failure without McCain). Headlines today state that the bailout has failed in the House, triggering a huge drop in DOW by about 778 points (which is about $1.2 trillion dollars lost on Wall Street). McCain is already taking the heat for the failure of the bailout bill. The debaters should be ready to tackle unfavorable events such as this (and the Republicans aren’t looking too sharp).